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全球进入负利率时代?投资者该何去何从?

hxyxm 于2019-11-21发布 l 已有人浏览
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欧洲和日本的重要利率几年来一直为负。日本央行和欧洲央行希望经济增长和小幅通胀,因此它们已将利率降至零以下。
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Negative US Interest Rates? Not Likely, Say Investors

香港本港台现场报码美国负利率?投资者说认为不太可能

香港本港台现场报码Important interest rates in Europe and Japan have been negative for several years. The moves, however, could provide a warning about what happens when central banks' efforts to support growth create problems instead.

欧洲和日本的重要利率几年来一直为负。然而,这些举措可能为人们提供一个警告,即当各国央行支持经济增长的努力产生问题时,会发生什么。

That is the idea expressed last week by finance officials and others at the Reuters Global Investment Outlook 2020 Summit。 They argue that the effects of below-zero interest rates are long-lasting and harmful。

这是上周在路透全球投资展望2020年峰会上,各国财政官员和其他人表达的观点。他们认为,低于零利率的影响是长期的、有害的。

Interest rates are negative when lenders, not borrowers, must pay interest。

当贷款人(而非借款人)必须支付利息时,利率为负。

Critics say negative rates punish people who save money, cause problems for big banks and lead people to take bigger risks to get a small amount of interest。

批评人士说,负利率会惩罚那些存钱的人,给大银行带来麻烦,让人们冒更大的风险来获得少量利息。

About $12.5 trillion of the world's bonds, about 30 percent of the debt of countries in the developed world, pay negative interest. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank want economic growth and a small amount of inflation, so they have cut their interest rates to below zero.

世界上约有12.5万亿美元的债券,约占发达国家债务的30%,支付的是负利率。日本央行和欧洲央行希望经济增长和小幅通胀,因此它们已将利率降至零以下。

However, a negative interest rate policy helps keep other interest rates, like the ones banks pay savers, low。

然而,负利率政策有助于保持其他利率,比如银行支付给储户的利率较低。

That means older people saving for retirement or in retirement are losing money, explained a recent blog post by BlackRock.

贝莱德最近的一篇博客文章解释称,这意味着老年人为退休或即将退休而存钱是在赔钱。

Blackrock and other investors say the U.S. Federal Reserve under Chairman Jerome Powell has been closely watching the situation in Europe and Japan. They say Powell wants to avoid negative rates in the United States.

香港本港台现场报码贝莱德和其他投资者说,美联储主席鲍威尔一直在密切关注欧洲和日本的形势。他们说,鲍威尔希望避免美国出现负利率。

香港本港台现场报码When you listen to Powell and other representatives of the Fed, they don't want to takes rates negative, said Dan Ivascyn. He is an investment officer at bond seller Pacific Investment Management Co.

丹·伊凡申说:“当你听到鲍威尔和其他美联储代表的讲话时,他们不希望看到利率为负,”。他是债券销售商太平洋投资管理公司的投资主管。

It will be well down the list of the tools that they will use, he said.

他说:“这将远远低于他们将使用的工具清单。”

The moves by Europe and Japan's central banks have raised a question about what tools others, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, have to fight a slowing economy.

欧洲和日本央行的举措引发了一个问题,即美国联邦储备委员会等其他央行应该用什么工具来应对经济放缓。

The U。S。 central bank last month cut its overnight lending rate by a fourth of a percentage point to a target somewhere between 1。5 percent and 1。75 percent。

美国央行上个月将隔夜贷款利率下调0.25个百分点,至1.5%至1.75%之间的目标。

U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that the Federal Reserve push interest rates into negative numbers as a way to permit the U.S. government to refinance its $22 trillion in debt.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普建议美联储将利率降至负数,以允许美国政府为其22万亿美元的债务再融资。

香港本港台现场报码That is unlikely to happen, some of the financial experts at the meetings said.

一些与会的金融专家说,这种情况不太可能发生。

Never say never, but there is a real hesitancy here in the U.S. to take rates below (zero), said Greg Peters. He is with the investment company, PGIM Fixed Income.

彼得斯说““永远不要说永远,但是在美国,人们确实在犹豫是否把利率降到零以下。他就职于PGIM固定收益投资公司。

香港本港台现场报码I think the U.S. has had the benefit of seeing the (effects) of negative rates elsewhere, he added.

他补充道:“我认为美国受益于看到其他地方负利率的影响,”。

Negative interest rates do not always lead to an increase in lending and growing business investment。

负利率并不总是会导致贷款增加和商业投资增长。

Negative rates can cause financial organizations to earn less. If their profits are affected they might stop lending altogether and that would hurt the economy.

负利率会导致金融机构的收入减少。如果它们的利润受到影响,它们可能会完全停止放贷,这将损害经济。

Anne Mathias supervises investing at Vanguard. She is an expert in worldwide interest rates. She said negative interest rates are unlikely.

安妮·马蒂亚斯负责监督Vanguard的投资。她是世界利率方面的专家。她表示,不太可能出现负利率。

If we go into a recession。。。we will just go back to quantitative easing and expand the balance sheet again, she said。

香港本港台现场报码“如果我们陷入衰退……我们将回到量化宽松,再次扩大资产负债表,”她表示。

香港本港台现场报码Andrew Hsu is a manager of the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund. He warned about the effects of negative rates.

安德鲁·许是DoubleLine Total Return债券基金的经理。他对负利率的影响发出了警告。

If we had negative rates for the next 10-20 years... no one in this room will be able to retire, he said.

“如果未来10-20年负利率……这个房间里没有人可以退休。”

香港本港台现场报码I'm Susan Shand。

苏珊·尚德为您报道。

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